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AFL Round 8 Preview: D-day for the Cats

Questions have again been asked about the end of the Geelong era and tonight's match looms as a possible answer. William Botoulas looks at all the weekend's action.

Collingwood V Geelong: MCG Friday 7.50pm

Football fans have had to wait until round eight for the grand final rematch to take place under Friday night lights at the MCG.

The Magpies (5-2) and the Cats (4-3) are yet to recapture their dominant form of 2011 that saw both sides reach this stage of the season undefeated.

Collingwood took a step towards its best form last week against an uncompetitive Brisbane.

The Magpies had 133 more disposals and 28 more inside 50s.

They were led by Steele Sidebottom who gathered 8 clearances, two goals, and 35 possessions at a disposals efficiency of a staggering 94%.

Sidebottom and fellow 2008 draftee Dayne Beams have appeared to take the next step in their development this season.

Consistent performances have seen Beams average a career-high of 27 disposals and 5 clearances, while Sidebottom has averaged 26 touches, hitting target with 81% of his disposals.

The Magpies have received a huge boost ahead of tonight’s clash with three premiership players set for a return.

Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes and Darren Jolly have all been named as the injury woes at the Westpac centre begin to subside.

Geelong on the other hand appears some way off recapturing its form of recent seasons.

The Cats were blown out of the water by the Crows, conceding 14 first half goals to just four.

Going into the game Chris Scott’s side had allowed just 15 total goals against from the past two games.

Geelong will welcome back its own premiership trio with Jimmy Bartell, Matthew Scarlett and Matthew Stokes return for the Cats.

After seven rounds the reigning premiers find themselves in uncharted waters, outside of the eight for the first time at this point of a season since 2006.

Write this side off at your peril. However, should the Cats suffer another blow out loss, calls for an end of an era will grow increasingly louder.

Prediction: Stars across the field for both sides but Collingwood seem in better form. Magpies by 13-points.

 

Port Adelaide V North Melbourne: AAMI Stadium Saturday 1.45pm

It appears North Melbourne have fooled the football world.

Since their ‘break-out’ win against Geelong back in round three the Kangaroos have lost three of their last four games, with their only win an unconvincing performance against the Gold Coast.

In the earlier rounds the Kangaroos looked best when generating run and carry through the middle of the ground.

In the three games North have won this year it has handballed a total of 93 more times than it has kicked.

However, when it has lost it has kicked the ball 145 times more.

Teams have begun to figure out the key to stopping the Roos- quell Brent Harvey and Daniel Wells.

In the first three rounds Harvey averaged 30 disposals per game and Wells 28, however, in the past month the duo have managed just 20 and 19 touches respectively.

The next two weeks loom as the crossroads for the career of Power coach Matthew Primus.

Should Port Adelaide put in another dismal performance in front of its home crowd and then lose to Gold Coast (away) the calls for Primus’s head may drown out his supporters.

The Power have finally received some good news with key forward Jay Schulz set to return from an eye injury.

After six consecutive losses there are serious concerns surrounding this Port Adelaide side that has managed just four wins from its past 31 matches.

Prediction: Season defining game for both clubs. Kangaroos by 17-points.

 

Hawthorn V Fremantle: Aurora Stadium Saturday 2.10pm

It seems bizarre that a team in ninth position after seven rounds would finds itself premiership favourite, but that is precisely the situation Hawthorn is in.

The Hawks have recorded routine wins against St Kilda and Melbourne, and have generated more scoring shots with Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin closer to goal.

Alastair Clarkson’s side has generated 33 and 40 shots on goal in the past two weeks, the previous fortnight. With Rioli and Franklin playing further up the ground the Hawks have managed just 21 and 19 scoring shots.

Fremantle coach Ross Lyon was forced to defend his game plan on West Australian radio after it was branded ‘ugly’.

The Dockers defensive mindset has seen them concede the fewest points against in the competition, however, it appears this has not been enough for the purple army.

Dockers fans expect big things from their side which promised so much yet in the past fortnight has delivered less than convincing wins over lowly Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.

Lyon is a certainty to persist with his defensive game plan from which his St Kilda model guided the Saints to the top-four in four consecutive seasons.

However, that very mentality will be put to the ultimate test should Franklin and Rioli get a hold on the Dockers back six.

Prediction: Hawthorn seemed to have quietly found some form after a slow start. Hawks by 20 points.

 

Sydney V Melbourne: SCG Saturday 4.40pm

Just when Demons fans thought slipping below GWS and Gold Coast on the ladder was rock bottom they need only look at the month ahead.

Following a trip to Sydney, Melbourne must then face Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood.

However, the immediate issue for the Demons is overturning their dismal performance against the Hawks.

Melbourne simply could not get its hands on the football.

Nathan Jones was the only Demon to gather over 20 touches (21), while the Hawks had 11.

As a result Melbourne spent just 37% of the game in their attacking half of the ground.

The Demons have recalled Jack Watts, former captain Brad Green, as well as forward livewire Liam Jurrah for his first game of the year.

Sydney had its own troubles last week, succumbing to the Tigers by 29-points.

The Swans put in a dismal first quarter from which they could never recover, allowing Richmond to gather 70 more disposals while using the ball at a dismal 45% efficiency.

Sydney butchered the football with 72 clangers for the match, its season average is just 42 (second lowest in the competition).

In its past two losses to the Tigers and Crows, Sydney has been beaten at its own game.

It has lost the clearance and contested possession count in both games, areas it have been among the top five in the competition for the past two seasons.

A renewed hunger for the contest will be needed to get the Swans back on track.

Prediction: Demons to show some spirit…. hopefully. Swans by 17 points.

 

Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast: TIO Stadium Saturday 7.10pm

After a worrying start to the season the Bulldogs have had an impressive month of football, winning three of their past four games.

Last week’s performance against the Kangaroos was their most impressive, led by their captain Matthew Boyd who amassed 44 disposals and 10 clearances.

Boyd has had a stellar year, averaging 33.1 disposals, 13.9 contested possessions and just over 6 clearances.

He leads the Bulldogs in contested possessions, uncontested possessions, overall disposals, and clearances.

In contrast, the Gold Coast has had last week’s embarrassing loss to the Giants compounded by the news young gun David Swallow will miss the next six weeks with a posterior cruciate ligament injury.

Swallow joins fellow teammates Nathan Bock (knee) and Jarrod Harbrow (elbow) on a growing injury list for the Suns.

The next fortnight looms as season defining for Gold Coast and its out-of-contract coach Guy McKenna.

With Port Adelaide to follow, the Suns will be desperate for four points in either or both games to calm the critics after last week’s nightmare.

They will need to be wary of the Bulldogs record at this ground.

The Dogs have won at the Northern Territory venue on the past three occasions by an average margin of 39 points.

Prediction: Impressed with the way Brendan McCartney has handled his side thus far. Dogs by 15 points.

 

Essendon V Richmond: MCG Saturday 7.50pm

The eighth annual Dreamtime at the ‘G shapes up to be an entertaining contest, as for the first time since this concept began both sides look set for a run to September action.

The Bombers continue to improve on their impressive performances from week to week. With games against GWS and Melbourne to follow, Essendon is setting itself for its first top-four finish in twelve years.

Adding to the good news for Bomber fans will be the return of young gun Michael Hurley to the Essendon forward line.

The Bombers have exercised extreme caution in nursing back their most valuable young player since Hurley suffered a hamstring strain against Carlton in round three.

After the Tigers’ round five loss to West Coast coach Damien Hardwick proclaimed ‘our season really starts now.’

Since then Richmond have won two in a row and head into tomorrow night with a fully fit list and full of confidence.

The Tiger army is singing the praises of new recruit, ruckman Ivan Maric.

The former Crow has averaged 15 disposals per game as well as 29.3 hitouts, ranking him fifth highest in the competition.

However what Richmond fans love most is his love of the contest, he is the hard-nosed ruckman they have been yearning for.

Prediction: Hard to tip against Essendon, should it manage just one loss until the halfway point of the season top-four beckons. Bombers by 26 points.

 

Brisbane V Greater Western Sydney: The Gabba Sunday 1.10pm

There is one word which sums up the Brisbane side of the past three weeks, ‘woeful.’

Its average losing margin of 54 points is only the tip of the iceberg.

The Lions’ workrate that adorned worthy praise in the early rounds has dissipated to an afterthought.

They have simply lacked intensity from the opening bounce, having been outscored in their past three first quarters by a total of eighteen goals to four.

It will need to overturn this statistic on Sunday when it faces a Greater Western Sydney side who has done just that in recent weeks.

Kevin Sheedy’s team has scored eight first quarter goals in its past three games while conceding just four.

It is a big turnaround considering rounds one to three saw it outscored a total 20 goals to three by quarter time.

The Giants made history last week, recording their first ever win against the Gold Coast.

It was no fluke but simply a reward for continual improvement.

Since round three Greater Western Sydney has been highly competitive in every game and its youngsters have been rewarded with three of a possible seven NAB Rising Star nominations.

In a surprising move Sheedy has opted to rest several of his impressive youngsters despite a real possibility of back-to-back wins.

Tomas Bugg, Dylan Shiel and Devon Smith have all been rested for the trip north as GWS remains conscious of nursing it’s young talent through the rigours of AFL football.

Prediction: Recent form points to an upset, but can you call it an upset? Giants by 10 points.

 

Carlton V Adelaide: Etihad Stadium Sunday 3.15pm

Week after week the Crows continue to prove this column wrong.

With wins over Sydney and Geelong under its belt, Adelaide has put the football world on notice.

The improvement of the Crows in the middle of the ground has been a big reason behind its resurgence.

Adelaide leads the competition in contested possessions and clearances.

However last year the Crows were ranked 15th and 14th in clearances. Brenton Sanderson has molded his players into inside specialists.

They face a Carlton side this week that was stunned by a relentless St Kilda on Monday night.

Though the Blues had more contested possessions (+5), inside 50s (+4), hitouts (+35) and tackles (+13), it counted for little as Brett Ratten’s side was given a lesson in workrate.

Marc Murphy (17 disposals) had his poorest game of the year and was well held by Clint Jones while Kade Simpson (16) was well beaten Farren Ray who gathered 27 disposals.

Adelaide are likely to adopt a similar approach, the test for several of Carlton’s key players will be how they react to the close attention.

A worry for Crows fans will be their side’s nightmare record in Victoria.

Adelaide have lost its last 15 games in Victoria, with its last win dating back to round 22, 2009 against the Blues.

Prediction: Adelaide has been impressive while the Blues have been below par for several weeks now. Crows by 17 points.

 

West Coast V St Kilda: Patersons Stadium Saturday 4.40pm

Last week the Eagles injury woes finally caught up with them.

St Kilda on the other hand is fit, firing and full of confidence following its impressive performance on Monday night against Carlton.

The mosquito fleet of Stephen Milne, Ahmed Saad and Terry Milera combined for nine goals between them and has injected a pace that has often been lacking from the Saints in past seasons.

St Kilda’s forward line appears to have the perfect blend of pace and height.

Many sides can handle one, possibly two small forwards but as was shown against Carlton, containing three poses is an awkward prospect.

Added to this are tall marking options in captain Nick Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzke and Rhys Stanley.

The trio appear to be clicking on all cylinders and it has paid dividends for the Saints with a return of 39 goals between them from the first seven games.

This area of the ground is where Scott Waters will see an advantage and will look to release his smaller forwards on the wide expanses of Patersons stadium.

History is on the Saints side, having defeated West Coast in their past four encounters including their last two trips West.

Prediction: West Coast will welcome the return of several key players, regardless of history it is hard to see them being beaten at home. Eagles by 19 points.

 

William Botoulas is a third-year Bachelor of Journalism student and upstart’s football writer. You can follow him on Twitter @botoulas43.

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