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Round 1: Footy is back, baby!

Footy is finally back! William Botoulas previews this week’s round 1 action in his first installment of the 2012 season.

Richmond V Carlton: MCG Thursday 7.45pm

After three years of season-opening disappointment and seven consecutive defeats, the Tigers finally get their chance at Blue redemption.

Carlton’s backline is depleted with Michael Jamison and Nick Duigan ruled out, while Jeremy Laidler has been named – despite dislocating his knee just four weeks ago.

Tigers spearhead Jack Riewoldt looks a likely chance to better his haul of six goals from last year’s round 1 clash.

Richmond has also enjoyed preseason wins over Hawthorn and Geelong, while Carlton failed to record a victory.

Of all the games this round, this contest will prove how reliable preseason form really is.

Despite their backline woes Carlton’s star-studded midfield is set to fire.

Kreuzer, Murphy, Gibbs and Simpson all enjoyed full pre-seasons.

Richmond’s young stars will have to make their more season opponents accountable.

Where will it be won and lost?

Stoppages:
If Richmond can get the ball going their way, quick entries into the forward 50 will result in plenty of scoring shots for the Tigers against an undermanned and undersized Carlton back six.

However should Judd and co. dominate the clearance count, Richmond’s forward advantage will be meaningless.

Carlton smashed the Tigers in this area (+20 differential in both games last year), it is doubtful such a gap can be bridged over summer.

Prediction: Whichever team wins the stoppage count, wins the game. Blues by 20 pts.

 

Hawthorn V Collingwood: MCG Friday 7.50pm

The football world will be watching, as favourite son Nathan Buckley becomes the general of the black and white army tomorrow night.

It would be the undoubted blockbuster of the round if not for the injury nightmares plaguing the Westpac centre.

The Magpies are set to face the Hawks with up to 10 players missing from the side that last ran out onto the G’.

Among them is fullback Chris Tarrant, who has battled foot trouble for much of the summer.

Tarrant’s absence is a big one, considering his likely opponent in Lance Franklin.

The last two times Franklin has faced Collingwood, Tarrant has restricted the Coleman medalist to just two goals.

In the two games prior to Tarrant’s arrival at the Magpies, Franklin booted 11 goals and averaged almost 20 touches.

Buddy is set to put the Magpie defence to the sword.

Won and Lost?

Wide open spaces:

If the Hawks are given space to kick out of the back half, and afforded room for their forwards to run into; it will be over early on Friday night.

The Magpies must apply their trademark relentless pressure to stand any chance.

Prediction: Too many injuries for the Magpies. Hawks by 40pts.


Melbourne V Brisbane: MCG Saturday 1.45pm

The motivation factor barely needs a mention.

Melbourne has the memory of former president Jim Stynes firmly entrenched in their minds.

They also carry with them the need to show to the hunger for the contest their supporters have been craving for years.

To take the next step this season the Demons must win the games they should, starting with the Lions on Saturday afternoon.

Boasting the second youngest list in the competition (21 years, 283 days) behind GWS, Brisbane has shown plenty of promise in pre-season, most notably a ten-goal win against Carlton.

The Lions midfield is an intriguing one, with Rich, Rockliff and Redden expected to continue their development under the tutelage of ageless veteran Simon Black.

However, without captain and centre half forward Jonathan Brown, the Lions are left toothless in the most important position of the ground.

Won and Lost?

Centre half forward:
This was the Achilles heel for both of these clubs last year.

Brown was sidelined for much of last year and his bad luck leaves him there again to start the 2012 season.

Melbourne realised they craved a key forward and got their man. But is he the right one?

Mitch Clarke holds the hope of the Demons in his hands, but if he fails to fire against his former club; the sharks will begin to circle.

Prediction: Melbourne, do it for Jimmy. Dees by 30 pts.

 

Gold Coast V Adelaide: Metricon Stadium Saturday 4.45pm

It is disappointing that the football world must wait another week to see whether the Crows are the real deal.

The pre-season premiers have enjoyed a flawless preseason and will take a full-strength side to Metricon Stadium.

New coach Brenton Sanderson said he is likely to make five changes from the side that won the NAB Cup two weeks ago.

Gold Coast on the other hand has completed a rather lack luster NAB Cup campaign, compounded by a 13-point loss to Greater Western Sydney.

The honeymoon has ended for the Suns who will be under pressure to improve; given coach Guy McKenna is set to undergo a mid-season review.

Won and Lost?

Adelaide forward line:

If Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett can finally manage to fire at the same time they could obliterate the Suns, who’s backline is their blaring weakness.

With Adelaide likely to dominate the clearances, both forwards are likely to have plenty of opportunity to dominate.

Prediction: Easy first-up kill for Adelaide. Crows by 75.

 

Fremantle V Geelong: Patersons Stadium Saturday 7.45pm

Set to be a genuine contest of the highest order.

The past two encounters between these two sides at Patersons have resulted in margins of 10 points or less.

Fremantle finally seems to have shaken its injury curse of 2011 and has a renewed confidence under coach Ross Lyon that it can match it with AFL’s best.

They get that first test up against a reigning premier, and if preseason form is anything to go by, the Cats will once again assume their position among the competition’s elite.

However, Geelong does have concerns surrounding the match fitness of several key players.

Chapman, Scarlett and Steve Johnson have had limited match preparation, while Corey Enright missed the Cats entire NAB Cup campaign.

Won and Lost?

Midfield:

The grunt of Geelong versus Fremantle’s speed.

Nathan Fyfe looks set to continue his step into an A-grader while the West is buzzing with Stephen Hill excitement, both will be key against Geelong.

The wide expanses of Pattersons will suit the Dockers’ running game and at the same time test the fitness of the Cats premiership stars.

Prediction: Fremantle’s match fitness will give them the edge. Dockers by 15pts.


North Melbourne V Essendon: Etihad Stadium Saturday 7.45pm

North Melbourne specifically requested the Bombers in round 1 and got their wish.

The Kangaroos have spoken about their future and their emerging stars for two seasons now, this year they must finally step into September action.

Lachie Hanson (hamstring) and Jack Ziebell (suspension) are key outs for North but they must make a statement against what is sure to be a 40,000 strong crowd.

For the first time in his tenure, Bombers coach James Hird has a near full strength squad to pick from.

Essendon’s ability to work without the football will be an area of their game that will be heavily scrutinised this year, given the defensive frailties that began to creep into their game towards the end of last season.

It remains to be seen whether they have addressed it.

Won and Lost?

Drew Petrie:

Petrie is clearly the Kangaroos’ most important player. He is their lone focal point up forward and a terrific contested mark.

He appears fully fit and after a solid preseason – including a seven-goal haul against Carlton two weeks ago – will be high on confidence.

If Petrie can fire with a five-goal plus haul, North are halfway there.

Prediction: Contain Petrie, win the game. Good Luck. Kangaroos by 10pts.


Western Bulldogs V West Coast Eagles: Etihad Stadium Sunday 1.10pm

New coach Brendan McCartney has been handed the reigns where balancing youth with experienced, yet aging, campaigners is paramount.

First round draft pick Clay Smith is likely to make his debut after the young midfielder put in a preseason which made the whole club take notice.

Brian Lake and Adam Cooney have been nursed back with care and are a chance to line up; after periods of carefully managed game time during the NAB Cup.

West Coast’s preseason campaign suggests they will again boast top-four credentials.

The only shadow of doubt for their season opener rests on the fitness of their forward line, with Josh Kennedy (foot) and Quinten Lynch (hamstring) to undergo fitness tests while mercurial goal-sneak Mark LeCras (knee) has been ruled out for the season.

Won and Lost?

The giant Eagles:

Cox and Naitanui are both match winners in their own right let alone as a ruck combination.

Cox was best on ground the last time these two teams met, if these two begin to take control, look out Doggies.

Prediction: West Coast too big and strong. Eagles by 37pts.

 

Port Adelaide V St Kilda: AAMI Stadium Sunday 4.40pm

A dull contest on paper but when you take into account the questions these two clubs must answer to the football world, it makes for an enticing one.

A basket case last year, the Power have managed to sign up several young players and a string of competitive NAB Cup games would fill their fans with an inclination of hope.

It will be interesting to see whether the 2012 Saints finally step out of their solely defensive mindset that had become their trademark for so many years under Ross Lyon.

New coach Scott Waters has promised quicker delivery into the forward line, a statement that would have made captain Nick Riewoldt leap for joy.

After disasters in 2011 for both clubs, a strong start to the season is key to stopping the seeds of doubt from creeping in.

Won and Lost?

Saints forward line:

Koschitzke and Riewoldt must work as one.

They were given a lesson by Cloke and Dawes several weeks ago and if the Saints are to cut an imposing figure in 2012 both players must fire against a Power side undersized down back.

Prediction: St Kilda still have too much star power for Port. Saints by 24pts.

 

William Botoulas is a third-year Bachelor of Journalism student at La Trobe and upstart’s football writer. You can follow him on Twitter:@botoulas43 

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