Search
Close this search box.

Round 18 Preview: Sparks to fly in western derby

Unlike St Kilda’s annihilation of a putrid Adelaide last night, Ben Waterworth believes Sunday’s western derby between Fremantle and West Coast will be gripping viewing. He previews that game, as well as the rest of Round 18’s AFL action.

North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions: Saturday 23/7 – 2.10pm at Etihad Stadium

One club has never looked in the finals hunt this season, but the hunger still burns for the other.

From ugly to classy in just seven days. It was an extraordinary effort by North Melbourne to bounce back after an inept performance the round before. The Kangaroos defeated the in-form Western Bulldogs by 31 points, in perhaps its most important victory for the season. They were led superbly by rising star Jack Ziebell, who finally came of age with 41 quality disposals. In fact, Ziebell is now the youngest player ever to accumulate 40 possessions or more in a game.

Brisbane really took it up to the almighty Cats last weekend, but fell away in final term to run out 29-point losers. However the Lions suffered an even bigger loss, with skipper and best player Jonathan Brown expected to miss the rest of the season after reinjuring his cheekbone. If we put aside where the Lions currently are on the ladder though, there is plenty upside, with Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden, Matthew Leunberger, Daniel Rich and Jared Polec all ripping long-term players.

However there’s a distinct difference in class and poise between these two teams at the moment. If the Roos want to play finals, a win here is a necessity. With the Lions missing Brown, North Melbourne should win comfortably at home.

PREDICTION:

North Melbourneby 42

Sydney v Western Bulldogs: Saturday 23/7 – 2.10pm at SCG

After announcing his retirement during the week, veteran power forward Barry Hall gets a chance to farewell his beloved Sydneysiders in a different jumper when sides he’s both played for clash on Saturday afternoon.

It was an enormous loss for Sydney against Fremantle last weekend, both in terms of confidence and ladder position. The Swans dropped from sixth to seventh on the ladder, a big plummet considering the backlog of teams competing for only two or three places this season. They’ve only won two of six games at the SCG this season, as they continue to not take their chances in front of goal at crucial stages.

It’s amazing how one loss can change the complexion of a team so much. After winning four consecutive games, Western Bulldogs suffered a shock 31-point loss toNorth Melbourne last weekend. The Dogs had been really hard to score against in past month, but conceded 146 points against and 68 inside 50’s against the Roos. Despite the loss, the Dogs are in a good position and should win three of their last four games, but one win from next two would be incredibly handy.

Must-win game for both teams here. The Swans seemed locked into sixth position a month back, but are now in serious danger of dropping out of the top eight. And it’s clear the Bulldogs are back to their attacking best, despite last weekend’s loss. With the extra incentive of Hall’s recent retirement, expect Western Bulldogs to cause an upset and keep its finals hopes alive.

PREDICTION:

Western Bulldogs by 12

Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood: Saturday 23/7 – 7.10pm at Metricon Stadium

If things go to plan, this has massacre written all over it.

Just when you thought the beltings would become more frequent for Gold Coast, it surprises everyone and elevates itself off the bottom of the ladder. The Suns captured their third victory of the season last weekend, defeating a stunned Richmond outfit by 15 points. They were 36 points down at one stage in the first quarter, but surprisingly had more run at the end of the game. The Suns are a big chance to defeat Brisbane andAdelaide in their run home, meaning they could potentially finish with five wins in their inaugural season.

It was a torrid week for Collingwood off the field, but you wouldn’t have guessed it by its on-field performance. The Pies produced a dogged 19-point win over Carlton to confirm it’s the strongest side, both physically and mentally, in the competition. However if there’s a criticism for the Pies, it’s that they’re too one-dimensional up forward with Chris Dawes out of the side. But Travis Cloke is in a class of his own at the moment, therefore the criticism is almost invalid.

One word – Collingwood, but maybe not by the length of the Flemington straight.

PREDICTION:

Collingwood by 70

Essendon v Carlton: Saturday 23/7 – 7.10pm at MCG

The last time these two teams met, they drew. Will we get another close encounter on Saturday night?

For the second consecutive match, Essendon had to produce a big second-half comeback. The Bombers kicked 10 of the last 12 goals of the game to defeatAdelaide by 11 points last weekend. The second half performances of Angus Monfries and David Zaharakis were inspirational to say the least, as they accumulated 22 and 20 disposals respectively. Clearly, the Bombers have matured in the past three weeks, evident through their ability to win from any situation. And they’ve done it all without skipper Jobe Watson.

During last weekend’s match, many thought Carlton was a genuine chance of beating Collingwood. However the Blues couldn’t take the next step when opportunities arose, therefore a three-goal loss was fairly appropriate. They’re now in a two-way battle for fourth spot on the ladder with West Coast – who has a game in hand – so the next month is crucial if they want a double chance.

A win for Bombers would give them every chance of making the finals, while a loss would make things hard, especially with such a tough run home and the bye in the final round. But with the Eagles chomping at the bit below it, Carlton has just as much to play for and should win.

PREDICTION:

Carltonby 18

Geelong v Richmond: Sunday 24/7 – 1.10pm at Etihad Stadium

Skilled Stadium is never a happy hunting ground for any visiting team – no matter how good they are. Expect more of the same on Sunday.

Geelong gave its fans a small heart attack againstBrisbane last weekend, but managed to pull away in the final term to win by five goals. The Cats were led magnificently by James Podsiadly, who booted 8.1 in a dominant performance up forward. Leg speed is still a real issue for the Cats in the first half, but as games progress and the pace slows down, the Cats’ older players come into their prime.

Put simply, Richmond hit rock bottom last weekend. The Tigers kicked three goals to 11 after quarter time to go down to a young Gold Coast outfit by 15 points. Some blamed the loss on the fact they had to sell the game to Cairns for extra money. But when you have 51 more possessions, 50 more marks and the same amount of scoring shots as your opposition, selling games is no excuse. The Tigers have now lost six of their past seven matches. While they understand the direction the club is going in, fans are starting to become impatient. They want results now. And after so long down the bottom, who could blame them?

Unfortunately for Tiger fans, they won’t get a decent result on Sunday. Geelong has won 13 of its past 14 matches againstRichmond – expect that to stretch to 14 of 15.

PREDICTION:

Geelongby 48

Melbourne v Hawthorn: Sunday 24/7 – 2.10pm at MCG

The red and blue army will look to keep in touch with the top eight on Sunday when they take on a top-four juggernaut coming off the bye.

Melbourne did what it had to do last weekend, beating a confidence-sapped Port Adelaide by 21 points inDarwin. However theDees have a tough month ahead, playing matches against four of the top five teams. They have an easy last three games, but they’ll probably have to win at least one of the next four to make the finals.

As this season has progressed, it’s become clear the later a team has a bye, the more beneficial it is. And for injury-plagued Hawthorn, it couldn’t have come at a better time. They also have a kind run home, with every game to be against teams below them on the ladder. The Hawks should be able to hold onto third spot, even if they lose toCarlton in Round 22.

This is perhaps Melbourne’s best opportunity of winning a match over the next month, because it’s playing an injury-cursed side coming off the bye at its beloved MCG. However Hawthorn has proven many times this season it can overcome all sorts of adversity, so expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

PREDICTION:

Hawthorn by 30

Fremantle v West Coast Eagles: Sunday 24/7 – 2.40pm at Etihad Stadium

The Western Derby is always a highlight of the AFL calendar. And with so much on the line this time round, expect Sunday’s clash to be no exception.

Amongst all the big winners in Round 17, Fremantle was perhaps the biggest. The Dockers produced a season-defining victory over the rampaging Swans, running out 11-point winners at the SCG to elevate them into sixth position. However it’s been well documented they have close to the toughest run home of any team trying to secure a top eight spot. They’ll need to beat teams above them on the ladder to get there.

It was a strange performance by West Coast last weekend. Highlighted by shocking disposal efficiency that was reminiscent of 2010, the Eagles allowed the Saints to go seven goals up in the first term. However they showed plenty of guts in the third term to claw their way back and hit the lead in the last quarter. The Eagles ended up losing the seesawing contest by 21 points, however there’s no need to panic.

This is perhaps the most important clash between these two sides since Round 21, 2006, when both sides were competing for a top-four spot. The Dockers have the recent wood over the Eagles, but their most important player, Aaron Sandilands, is still out with injury. Expect the dominant ruck combination of Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui to have a field day and West Coast to bounce back from last weekend’s loss.

PREDICTION:

West Coast by 30

BYE:

Port Adelaide

Ben Waterworth is a third-year Bachelor of Journalism student at La Trobe University and is upstart’s former sports editor. You can follow him on twitter: @bjwaterworth

Related Articles

Editor's Picks