Imagine waking up to find your front door wide open and your car is nowhere to be found. Maybe this doesn’t sound too far-fetched, either, as many media outlets all appear to be portraying the same message: a dark wave of crime is sweeping over the nation.

For Jennifer Senior, a Balwyn resident, it feels true. At around 2am in January, Senior woke up to a call from her daughter telling her the front door was wide open and their white BMW was missing. Senior describes them feeling, “Violated, angry and shocked – all the emotions.”

Australians are hearing more and more stories of break-ins, youth crime and stabbings. Senior says that she definitely has a heightened awareness, due to media reporting.

“Every morning you hear more and more stories of crime,” she says.

But what do the crime statistics actually say? Has crime really surged in Australia?

Dr Emma Russell, Associate Professor in Crime, Justice & Legal Studies at La Trobe University, says crime has actually been decreasing since 2013, including robbery and physical assault.

“If you look over the last few decades, generally, they’re [crime rates] trending downwards,” she says, referencing ABS data.

Despite this downward trend, some states, like Victoria have experienced an increase. In 2024, Victoria saw a 15.7 percent rise from 2023, especially in property offences (crimes that involve damaging or stealing of property), which rose by nearly 22 percent. So why do some categories go up, while others go down? However, Russell says that crime statistics can’t be taken at face value.

“Crime statistics are only as useful as the context that they’re put within,” she says.

The primary source of crime statistics is police data, which includes criminal offences and incidents reported to or by police. This data can be influenced by increased resources or heightened focus on certain crimes.

“So it might be, the Richmond police station, for this quarter, is focusing on cracking down on drug dealing,” Russell says.

“If you deploy more police officers to a particular type of social issue, then you’ll naturally see that reflected in crime statistics.”

Another example is Western Australia, which saw the highest number of offences in domestic and family violence in 2024. The rise followed a $110 million investment into addressing family violence in 2022. The investment likely contributed to the increase in those crime statistics because police were putting more resources into domestic violence, leading to more responses and thus more recorded offences. Russell also says the rise in family violence statistics could be due to more intervention orders, which arise from more policing.

In March, in response to growing discourse about crime in the state, Premier Jacinta Allen announced that Victoria would now have the toughest bail laws in Australia, including a new, stricter bail test and a removal of a clause that previously required youth detention as a last resort. In response to more alleged offenders spending time in jail, the Victorian government has also allocated $727 million for more prison and youth justice beds.

However, Victoria’s recent spike in crime might be related to law changes and increased police funding since 2013, which was $4.51 billion allocated to Victoria Police in the 2024-2025 budget, compared to $2.331 billion in 2013. This is also the same time that data showed family violence-related crimes increasing. The rise in crimes being reported was due to a safer process, whereby victims felt more willing to come forward, which was reflected in the statistics. Similarly, the larger allocation of funding in 2024-2025—provided to address increased crime statistics—could actually mean Victoria might see higher crime statistics in the coming years.

“Crime statistics reflect what police do, not necessarily the behaviours that are happening in a community at any one time,” Russell says.

So, funding can play a key role in crime statistics, but can the media influence public perception? The Australian Psychological Council has warned that the mass media have over-represented violent crime and youth crime, without analysing the context. This over-representation, even when crime statistics may show an overall decrease, can exaggerate people’s sense of criminal activity. 

The media often publishes statistics that are true but misleading. For example, in March this year 9 News reported that Victoria saw record youth crime. The article said that youth crime is the highest since 1993, but failed to mention that most of the offenders were repeat offenders. The number of youth committing first-time offences had fallen by 3 percent. The article also didn’t note that statistics included situations where youths were interacting with police, not necessarily committing crimes.

Russell also points out that only a small number of Victorian youths are actually responsible for committing most of the youth crime in the state. This group of young people is aged between 14 and 17-years-old and is responsible for the high-end crimes, such as car theft, home invasions and high-speed car chases.

“It’s about 300 young people that are responsible for… most of the youth offending that police are charging in Victoria,” she said.

For Russell, media reporting can contribute to both public fear and misrepresentation of statistics.

“If people are only getting their information about crime and the criminal justice system from mainstream media, we’re not getting the full story.”

Article: Joshua Grobbelaar is a second-year Media and Communications (Journalism) student at La Trobe University. You can follow him on Twitter @josh_grobbelaar

Photo: Two Gray Bullet Security Cameras by Scott Webb found HERE and used under a Creative Commons license. This image has not been modified.