This Wednesday, local time, India launched a military operation in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir following a terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, Indian-controlled Kashmir, where 26 Indian tourists died.

An Indian airstrike hit nine targets in Pakistan, killing 31 people, as India said it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. Pakistani Minister of Defence Khawaja Asif said they’re “prepared for an all out war”.

So what brought these countries into conflict and how does it threaten the regional and global stability?

How did this all start?

A long time ago, actually. First, some history. India and Pakistan were both part of the British Empire. In 1947 when British rule over the 562 states was over, the states had to choose whether to join India or Pakistan, or to stay independent. Most of the Hindu states joined India, and most of the Muslim ones Pakistan.

Kashmir, which has a large Muslim population as well as a significant number of Hindus, was ruled at the time by a Hindu prince, Hari Singh. Both India and Pakistan wanted to claim the entirety of Kashmir, but  Singh decided to remain independent. But when a Muslim uprising in the north started later in 1947, Pakistan supported the uprising by invading and Kashmir joined India.

Now, seventy percent of the Kashmir population live in the area that India controls. Pakistan also controls 30 percent of the area and China 15 percent of the mostly uninhabited land in the Himalayas.

Is this the first conflict between India and Pakistan? 

No. Since gaining independence, India and Pakistan have had four full-scale wars. Three of them were over Kashmir and one was the Bangladesh war for independence of 1965 where India helped East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) to secede from Pakistan.

The India-Pakistan wars were fought in 1947-1948 and 1971, and the Kargil war in 1999. In all of the previous conflicts, the first shots were fired by Pakistan, but the wars won by India. In 1962 a war between India and China broke out, where India was forced to concede northern Kashmiri territories.

Even during the relative peace in recent years, border conflicts often occurred, but with the help of the UN and the international community all of them were successfully de-escalated.

Here’s the link if you want to read more on the previous wars.

Should we worry about this most recent conflict?

Unlike the previous conflicts, this one may be dangerous not only due to destabilisation of the region but because it risks starting the first full-scale war between nuclear powers in history.

India first acquired nuclear weapons in 1974 and has now collected approximately 180 nuclear warheads. Once India acquired them, Pakistani president Zulfikar Ali Bhutto said: “We will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own [atom bombs]… We have no other choice!” Pakistan then got their first atom bomb with the help of China in 1998. Now Pakistan has around 170 warheads.

This set off first fears of nuclear conflict during the war in 1999, when Pakistani military disguised as Kashmir combatants, were sent to India-controlled Kashmir. However, it was quickly resolved by the UN, who feared the further escalation.

However, compared to the smaller-scale conflict of the Kargil war of 1999, this new escalation is happening openly through missile strikes.

How is the rest of the world reacting to the new conflict?

Pakistani Defence Minister Asif told Bloomberg that Pakistan will never be the initiator in war with India.

“We have been saying all along in the last fortnight that we’ll never initiate anything hostile towards India,” he said. “But if we’re attacked, we’ll respond. If India backs down, we will definitely wrap up this tension.”

Pakistani prime-minister, Shehbaz Sharif, however, talked about revenge in Wednesday’s National Security Committee.

“Pakistan reserves the right to respond, in self-defence, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty,” he said.

Other world leaders have called for de-escalation.

“The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s spokesman said.

Donald Trump said he is hoping “it ends very quickly”.

Iran has offered to mediate between India and Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has come to Delhi and will meet Indian president Droupadi Murmu today. Before he has met with Pakistani army chiefs.

Photo by Koshy Koshy found HERE and is used under a Creative Commons Licence. This image has not been modified.